2026-06-10 15:15 UTC
Market snapshot
Vol 161 calls·Liq 108 XP·Ends Jan 1 UTC
Answer options
BinaryWhy it matters
AGI timelines divide researchers and investors; whether it lands this decade will reshape labor, regulation, and the competitive race among frontier labs.
Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if, before January 1, 2030 US Eastern, a consensus of credible sources (major AI labs, peer-reviewed benchmarks, or expert panels) judges that AGI exists: AI matching or exceeding human-level performance across most economically relevant cognitive tasks without task-specific retraining. Narrow superhuman tools alone resolve NO.
https://www.anthropic.com/researchTiming
expiresAt: 2030-01-01T04:59:59.000Z
votingClosesAt: 2029-12-31T04:59:59.000Z
votingLockMinutesBeforeDue: = 1440 minutes
eventStart: 2029-12-31T05:59:59.000Z
Expires 2030-01-01 04:59 UTC
Metadata
49%
0.0%
Will AGI arrive before 2030?
Vol 161 calls·Liq 108 XP·Ends Jan 1 UTC
Will AGI arrive before 2030?
Vol 161 calls·Liq 108 XP·Ends Jan 1 UTC
49%
0.0%
