2026-06-09 17:14 UTC
Market snapshot
Vol 230 calls·Liq 83 XP·Ends Aug 1 UTC
Answer options
Multi (3 options)Why it matters
xAI release cadence for Grok models is a bellwether for the consumer AI race; timing of Grok 4.4 signals how fast the lab is shipping after Grok 4.3.
Resolution criteria
Resolves to the earliest milestone on or after xAI first public release of Grok 4.4 (general availability). June 15 = on/before Jun 15; June 30 = Jun 16–30; July 31 = after Jun 30 (US Eastern end-of-day). Grok 4.4 = product named Grok 4.4 or a direct Grok 4.3 successor; task-specialized variants count.
https://x.ai/Timing
expiresAt: 2026-08-01T03:59:59.000Z
votingClosesAt: 2026-07-31T03:59:59.000Z
votingLockMinutesBeforeDue: = 1440 minutes
eventStart: 2026-07-31T04:59:59.000Z
Expires 2026-08-01 03:59 UTC
Metadata
31%June 30
29%June 15
40%July 31
Grok 4.4 released by…?
Vol 230 calls·Liq 83 XP·Ends Aug 1 UTC
Grok 4.4 released by…?
Vol 230 calls·Liq 83 XP·Ends Aug 1 UTC
31%June 30
29%June 15
40%July 31
