Will Manila experience a 7.0+ magnitude earthquake by July 8? (Closes: July 8, 2026, 22:59 UTC)

Market snapshot

• Yes30% now
• No70% now

Why it matters

Manila is in an active seismic zone, and major earthquakes pose a significant threat, impacting millions of lives and the economy.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher, with an epicenter within 200 km of Manila, Philippines, is officially reported by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) or the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) by 23:59:59 UTC on July 8, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

Timing